Don't guess which forecasting method to trust. Backtest all four (naive/drift, SES, Holt, Holt-Winters) on a real series, rank by out-of-sample RMSE, then forecast forward with the winner and its 95% prediction interval. Method selection without the hand-waving. Forecasting bake-off skill pack: one x402 payment runs 7 underlying tools (stock-history, fred-series, forecast-eval, forecast-naive, forecast-ses, forecast-holt, forecast-holt-winters); partial-success per step.

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