Causal chain for arabica coffee: minimum temperature forecast 72h ahead over the southern Minas belt (frost is the event that historically moves KC hardest, operational threshold 3 °C) → consecutive dry days stressing flowering → observed rainfall → the official BRL/USD rate that converts the international price for the grower. Brazil is the top arabica exporter. Physical signal only: bring your own price. Free sample, no payment: https://api.brazilayer.com/v1/cadeias/amostra

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