The macro regime that drives crypto, as signals rather than raw levels: the 2s10s yield curve spread with its direction and an inverted flag, Fed funds, 2Y and 10Y yields, CPI year-over-year, the broad dollar index, VIX and M2 — each with its previous reading, so direction comes free. The slope of the curve, not the level of any single yield, is the liquidity signal: re-steepening out of inversion marks the easing that risk assets price first.

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