Strait of Hormuz war-risk transit premium nowcast: a live MODELED war-risk insurance multiple (Nx over the peace baseline, 1x-80x scale) for a tanker transit, recomputed every 5 minutes from throughput deviation (IMF PortWatch), the escalation forecast, crude implied volatility (OVX) and event pressure. Returns a band, a curated VLCC premium band ($/voyage, estimated separately), per-driver detail and a confidence that drops on stale feeds. A modeled indicator, not an insurance quote.

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